Different approaches

There are two different approaches to quantitative target-setting. Current good practice involves a combination of top down long term goals as well as bottom up interim targets (usually of 7-10 year duration) which are soundly related to the stated measures and their likely effectiveness in the national road safety strategy [28].

Top down long term goals are based on an idealistic objective with little prior consideration of how the target is to be reached (e.g. the EU and ECMT target or the elimination or virtual elimination of deaths and serious injuries as defined in Vision Zero.

Bottom up interim targets are set on the basis of forecasting long term past and future trends and relate to achievable outcomes for a specified package of measures within a given timeframe. Targets that are soundly related to the stated measures and their likely effectiveness can provide both clear motivation for stakeholders from whom action is expected and meaningful yardsticks against which progress with implementation of the strategy can be measured. Such a sound relationship between targets and measures can be reached by stakeholders either first agreeing on the measures and then deducing matching targets, or first deciding on targets and then finding a set of measures that makes the targets achievable, or, probably most typically, by a subtle mixture of these two approaches. In this way, targets can be identified for the timeframe of the next national strategy which achieve a balance between challenge, achievability, and public and political acceptability [2].